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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model