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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 34

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model