Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 23, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model