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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 77

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to KC 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 26 for 10 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model