Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

(1:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.48 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model