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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 67

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 19 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model