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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 47

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 11 yards (48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model