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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-34-Z.Zenner.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP