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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Monday 2016-12-26 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DET
37.5%
DAL
62.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.231 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

Travis Swanson C Out Concussion
Theo Riddick RB Doubtful Wrist
Darius Slay CB Doubtful Hamstring
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Justin Durant LB Out Elbow
Demarcus Lawrence DE Out Back
Cedric Thornton DT Out Ankle
Tyrone Crawford DT Doubtful Shoulder
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Back
Barry Church S Questionable Forearm
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot
Ronald Leary G Questionable Back
J.J. Wilcox S Questionable Thigh
Sean Lee LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 21
–
DAL 42

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:02 TD DAL (10:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-B.Butler for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a seam route. DET 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 05:28 TD DET (5:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – DAL 7
  • Q1 03:00 TD DAL (3:00) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 13:40 TD DET (13:40) 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 13 – DAL 14
  • Q2 07:45 TD DET (7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-Z.Zenner right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – DAL 14
  • Q2 01:10 TD DAL (1:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-D.Bryant for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. DET 21 – DAL 20
  • Q3 10:24 TD DAL (10:24) 21-E.Elliott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – DAL 27
  • Q3 04:11 TD DAL (4:11) 88-D.Bryant pass short left to 82-J.Witten for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was pitched to Bryant on an end-around to the left side prior to Bryant passing the ball to Witten. DET 21 – DAL 34
  • Q4 12:18 TD DAL (12:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-D.Bryant for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – DAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (13:40) 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to DET 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. Roberts of Detroit has a shoulder injury and his return is questionable.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:30) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to DAL 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 49 for 5 yards (52-A.Williams; 51-B.Copeland). Injury update: Terrell McClain has an ankle injury; his return is questionable. Ryan Davis has a knee injury; his return is questionable.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-34-Z.Zenner.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:22) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 10 for no gain (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to DET 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DAL 30 for 23 yards (6-C.Jones; 51-K.Wilber).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (4:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to DAL 6 for 5 yards (32-O.Scandrick). FUMBLES (32-O.Scandrick), and recovers at DAL 4. 15-G.Tate to DAL 4 for no gain (32-O.Scandrick).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to DET 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.