Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 54

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 42

(8:27) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model