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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 30-J.Richard to LV 24 for 8 yards (57-J.McNary).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model