IND @ OAK — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano

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HC Jack Del Rio

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

IND

44.2%

OAK

55.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

IND offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
LV offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Derek Carr (LV): +0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 22

–

OAK 24

Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

IND

Chris Carter LB Out Shoulder

Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Knee

Joe Reitz T Questionable Back

OAK

Shilique Calhoun LB Out Knee

Karl Joseph S Out Toe

Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle

Amari Cooper WR Questionable Shoulder

Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Finger

Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Ankle

Perry Riley LB Questionable Hamstring

Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

Dan Williams DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 25

–

OAK 33

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 15:00 TD LV (15:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – OAK 6
Q2 09:54 TD IND (9:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – OAK 7
Q2 05:55 TD LV (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 88-C.Walford for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – OAK 13
Q2 00:22 TD LV (:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – OAK 19
Q3 10:53 TD LV (10:53) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – OAK 25
Q3 08:45 TD LV (8:45) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – OAK 32
Q3 05:22 TD IND (5:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 33-R.Turbin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. IND 13 – OAK 33
Q4 07:47 TD IND (7:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – OAK 33
Q4 02:38 FG IND (2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 25 – OAK 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(13:30) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 30-J.Richard to LV 24 for 8 yards (57-J.McNary).
Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 53%

(11:03) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.
Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-P.McAfee left tackle to LV 30 for no gain (56-D.Bates).
Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:12) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.
Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 88

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP

p(convert) 64%

(12:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to LV 41, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND. PENALTY on IND-40-C.Milton, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.
Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(4:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at IND 20.
Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 25 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

(2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.