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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.66 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP