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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 33 – Indianapolis Colts 22

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at IND 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model