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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 92

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 49 for no gain (29-T.Brooks). FUMBLES (29-T.Brooks), recovered by NYG-31-T.Wade at NYG 44. 31-T.Wade to NYG 44 for no gain (53-N.Bradham).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.28 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 92, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 50, worth -3.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model