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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Thursday 2016-12-22 · 20:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
46.0%
PHI
54.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.006 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.031 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Jason Pierre-Paul DE Out Core Muscle
Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Knee
Janoris Jenkins CB Questionable Back

PHI

Allen Barbre G Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Ankle
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Ankle
Halapoulivaati Vaitai T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 19
–
PHI 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 TD PHI (9:54) 43-D.Sproles right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 08:29 TD PHI (8:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 45-W.Tye INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NYG 34. 27-M.Jenkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 13
  • Q1 00:14 FG NYG (:14) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – PHI 14
  • Q2 07:32 FG NYG (7:32) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 6 – PHI 14
  • Q2 05:05 TD PHI (5:05) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 17-N.Agholor for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:37 TD NYG (:37) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – PHI 21
  • Q3 09:13 FG NYG (9:13) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 16 – PHI 21
  • Q4 08:47 FG PHI (8:47) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. NYG 16 – PHI 24
  • Q4 05:20 FG NYG (5:20) 5-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 19 – PHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:08) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to PHI 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:41) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to PHI 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. Penalty on PHI-52-N.Goode, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (6:07) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (:14) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:53) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to PHI 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:39) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 49 for no gain (29-T.Brooks). FUMBLES (29-T.Brooks), recovered by NYG-31-T.Wade at NYG 44. 31-T.Wade to NYG 44 for no gain (53-N.Bradham).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (7:32) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:28) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 33 for 4 yards (53-N.Bradham; 29-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:13) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (1:13) 24-R.Mathews up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (72-K.Wynn; 59-D.Kennard).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 85%

    (8:47) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 25 for 10 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (5:20) 5-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:24) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 27 for -1 yards (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (22-N.Carroll).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:37) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.