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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to PHI 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.06 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP