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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 17

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model