Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 13

(13:28) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 33 for 4 yards (53-N.Bradham; 29-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model