4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 11

New York Giants 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model