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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 24-R.Mathews up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (72-K.Wynn; 59-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model