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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP