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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 37

New York Giants 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (22-N.Carroll).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model