Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Giants 19

(1:37) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.40 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model