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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP