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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model