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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP