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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

TB
45.2%
NO
54.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.161 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.144 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

Gosder Cherilus T Out Groin
Demar Dotson T Out Concussion
William Gholston DE Out Elbow
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Foot

NO

Delvin Breaux CB Out Shoulder
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Foot
John Kuhn RB Questionable Hip
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Shoulder
Max Unger C Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:01 TD NO (1:01) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 10:55 TD TB (10:55) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 5 TB 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 06:50 FG NO (6:50) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 7 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 7 – NO 13
  • Q3 14:06 TD NO (14:06) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – NO 19
  • Q3 08:43 TD TB (8:43) 32-J.Rodgers right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NO 20
  • Q3 06:24 TD NO (6:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 38-T.Cadet for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 7 TB 14 – NO 26
  • Q3 01:59 TD TB (1:59) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-N.Fairley]. Penalty on NO-24-S.Moore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Pass 30, YAC 4 TB 20 – NO 28
  • Q4 11:58 FG NO (11:58) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 21 – NO 31
  • Q4 02:05 FG TB (2:05) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 24 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (11:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to TB 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:37) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NO 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:03) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NO 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at NO 44 for 6 yards (16-B.Coleman). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 86%

    (6:50) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:46) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 12, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis. PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 12.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (11:58) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-A.Humphries to TB 43 for 18 yards (49-S.Keo).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (2:05) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.