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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model