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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NO 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model