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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model