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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NO 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP