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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 22

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 23 for no gain (37-K.Reed; 36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP