4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

8-7 HC Mike Mularkey
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-12 HC Doug Marrone
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 ET EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TEN
62.3%
JAX
37.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.119 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.138 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 24 17–31
–
JAX 20 13–27
Projected margin: TEN by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

TEN

Jason McCourty CB Out Chest
Sean Spence LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Arrelious Benn WR Out Concussion
Jordan Hill DT Out Calf
Allen Hurns WR Out Hamstring
Sean Porter LB Out Hamstring
Denard Robinson RB Out Ankle
Neal Sterling WR Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
JAX 38

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 TD JAX (11:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 11-M.Lee for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 04:05 FG JAX (4:05) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 0 – JAX 10
  • Q2 09:07 TD TEN (9:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 18-R.Matthews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – JAX 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 16
  • Q2 00:16 FG JAX (:16) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 7 – JAX 19
  • Q3 12:29 FG TEN (12:29) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 10 – JAX 19
  • Q3 08:18 FG JAX (8:18) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 10 – JAX 22
  • Q3 03:04 FG JAX (3:04) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 10 – JAX 25
  • Q4 08:49 TD TEN (8:49) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 82-D.Walker for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – JAX 25
  • Q4 05:32 TD JAX (5:32) (Shotgun) 11-M.Lee pass short left to 5-B.Bortles for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 5 handed to JAX 11, JAX 11 passed to JAX 5 TEN 17 – JAX 31
  • Q4 05:25 TD JAX (5:25) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 18-R.Matthews INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at TEN 30. 20-J.Ramsey for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – JAX 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:44) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 26 for 10 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:05) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (2:03) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 31 for -2 yards (25-P.Thompson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:16) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (:16) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to JAX 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (12:29) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

    (8:18) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:11) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 23 for no gain (37-K.Reed; 36-L.Sims).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 71%

    (3:04) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

    (:01) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:56) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Walker (39-T.Gipson).

    See the full breakdown →