Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.01 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model