Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(9:44) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 26 for 10 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model