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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Walker (39-T.Gipson).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP