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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model