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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 11

Washington Commanders 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP