Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.227 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CHI offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
WAS
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:48 TD WAS (7:48) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CHI 0
- Q1 01:05 TD WAS (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CHI 0
- Q2 10:12 FG WAS (10:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – CHI 0
- Q2 06:27 TD CHI (6:27) 68-M.McCants reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – CHI 6
- Q2 01:48 TD WAS (1:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – CHI 7
- Q2 00:41 TD CHI (:41) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass deep right to 81-C.Meredith for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – CHI 13
- Q3 03:10 TD WAS (3:10) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 30 – CHI 14
- Q4 12:57 FG WAS (12:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 34 – CHI 14
- Q4 01:26 TD CHI (1:26) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 14-D.Thompson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 34 – CHI 20
- Q4 01:08 TD WAS (1:08) 34-M.Brown left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 40 – CHI 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 44%
(12:48) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 45-B.Addison to CHI 11 for 3 yards (50-M.Spaight).
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to WAS 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(3:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-P.Smith), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(10:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%
(11:47) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Prosinski. 31-C.Prosinski right guard to 50 for 2 yards (48-L.Trail).
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 91%
(1:03) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 85-V.Davis.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(12:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%
(6:34) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.