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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 57

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 45-B.Addison to CHI 11 for 3 yards (50-M.Spaight).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP