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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 86

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to WAS 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model