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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 31 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP