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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 4-S.Koch punts 26 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model