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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

BAL
41.3%
CIN
58.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.116 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.022 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

BAL

Zach Orr LB Out Neck
Rick Wagner T Out Concussion
Alex Lewis T Questionable Ankle

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Hamstring
Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Shoulder
Vontaze Burfict LB Doubtful Knee
Tyler Kroft TE Doubtful Knee
Jeremy Hill RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 10
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 TD CIN (10:23) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-33-M.Elam was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 03:17 FG BAL (3:17) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CIN 7
  • Q1 00:02 TD CIN (:02) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 06:13 FG CIN (6:13) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 3 – CIN 17
  • Q2 00:07 FG CIN (:07) 4-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 3 – CIN 20
  • Q4 08:41 TD BAL (8:41) 30-K.Dixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CIN 20
  • Q4 02:23 TD CIN (2:23) 33-R.Burkhead right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – CIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:15) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 20%

    (6:59) 30-K.Dixon right end pushed ob at CIN 41 for 12 yards (36-S.Williams).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (3:17) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (11:12) 4-S.Koch punts 26 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (6:13) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (12:22) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:50) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 13. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 13 for no gain (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:11) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 34 for 12 yards (52-T.Roach).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Pitta (59-N.Vigil).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 40 for 9 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:42) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-A.Jones to CIN 29 for 15 yards (84-D.Waller).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:59) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 30 for 17 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:46) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Perriman (27-D.Kirkpatrick).