4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model