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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model