Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 40 for 9 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model