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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-A.Jones to CIN 29 for 15 yards (84-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model