Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(11:59) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 30 for 17 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model